Seismic fragility analysis based on artificial ground motions and surrogate modeling of validated structural simulators

This study introduces a computational framework for efficient and accurate seismic fragility analysis based on combination of artificial ground motion modeling, polynomial-chaos-based global sensitivity analysis, hierarchical kriging surrogate modeling. The follows the philosophy Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering PEER approach, where is decoupled from hazard analysis. addresses three criticalities that are present in current practice. Namely, reduced size hazard-consistent size-specific ensembles records, validation structural simulators against large-scale experiments, high cost estimates. effectiveness proposed demonstrated Rio Torto Bridge, recently tested using hybrid simulation within RETRO project.